uncertainty

I've been writing for over a decade about why we should be clear about the difference between "uncertainty" and "risk." 

when we call a situation with unknowns "risky", we automatically apply risk-management ways of thinking when deciding how to act — cost-benefit analysis, expected value analysis etc. 

these are good when the unknowns can be both precisely AND accurately estimated. most of the important unknowns today aren't accurately quantifiable like that.

and if you can't quantify the unknowns accurately these risk-management ways of thinking just don't work. 

worse, they encourage the optimisation instinct, which is fragile when the situation is actually unquantifiably uncertain 

geostrategic unknowns from highly capricious state actors are the definition of unquantifiable uncertainty (to take just one example 😑)

I've been writing for over a decade about why we should be clear about the difference between "uncertainty" and "risk." 

when we call a situation with unknowns "risky", we automatically apply risk-management ways of thinking when deciding how to act — cost-benefit analysis, expected value analysis etc. 

these are good when the unknowns can be both precisely AND accurately estimated. most of the important unknowns today aren't accurately quantifiable like that.

and if you can't quantify the unknowns accurately these risk-management ways of thinking just don't work. 

worse, they encourage the optimisation instinct, which is fragile when the situation is actually unquantifiably uncertain 

geostrategic unknowns from highly capricious state actors are the definition of unquantifiable uncertainty (to take just one example 😑)

https://vaughntan.org/notknowing