@trexer
Sometimes, I think prediction markets don’t know what they are
To bettors, they’re casinos with better UX. Thrill, odds, payout, but nothing deeper
To forecasters, they’re supposed to be truth engines. Calibration, signal, epistemics
Tbh, the problem is….both groups are trapped in the same pool
So we end up with a weird hybrid: a lab experiment that smells like a sportsbook
Everyone swears it’s the future, but half the players are just here for the dopamine
Maybe that’s why the signal never feels clean
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