tiro-xiii (tiro-xiii.base.eth)

BTC has just slipped below the $80K support and is now range-bound around $76K–$80K. This decline was amplified by LTH selling and recent macro stress — including the US government shutdown now >99% likely to run 3+ days. The last shutdown in 2025 marked a bearish phase, and current odds for geopolitical escalation also rising. I laid out the full data, levels, and probabilities in tonight’s article.

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And just like that we're seeing a de-risk to get ahead of the weekend sell-off, traders dumping #btc and #eth to prepare for a fresh start on Monday, when all the stocks open for trading. Called it in my article. Follow for live updates daily!!!!

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Gold -12.7%. Silver -29.2%. BTC -7.8%. Bitcoin quietly outperformed traditional “safe havens” during a dollar shock. That’s not noise — that’s a signal 👇 Read the full article on X or Paragraph

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https://paragraph.com/@theteatalks/4-year-cycle-got-you-beat

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This is why I still believe, even while I’m in unrealised loss (shhh 🤫). I’ve seen Sui lead, I trust the tech, and I trust the vision. Crypto was the working man’s Wall Street. After 2008, decentralization, security, and transparency felt like hope. Sui took that, flipped the bird to the old system, and said “we’ll build our own.” 🖕🏽🏗️

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The Fed just paused rate cuts. Polymarket had it priced at 98%… and crypto barely moved. Now layer in war risk, shutdown odds at 70%, and de-leveraging across markets. In the last shutdown, BTC dropped ~14%. $88K → $85K → $80K becomes the key battlefield. Short-term pain, long-term conviction. Full macro + cycle breakdown here 👇

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Many of us came into crypto in 2025, saw early gains, got greedy, and now find ourselves DCA’ing through stagnation. The 4-year cycle and post-halving fear still loom, but ETF adoption and institutions are changing the game. Short-term holders are underwater, selling pressure fades, and a slow grind higher may follow.

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