The correlation between Bitcoin price and global M2 money supply is significant, often exceeding 0.94 over the long term. As central banks expand M2—cash, checking, and savings deposits—global liquidity rises, driving demand for risk assets like Bitcoin. Historical data shows Bitcoin bull markets align with M2 growth spurts, such as in 2017 and 2020, when liquidity surges fueled massive rallies. However, short-term correlations weaken (e.g., 0.36 over six months), as Bitcoin-specific factors like halving cycles or market sentiment intervene. A 10-week lag often emerges, with M2 shifts preceding price moves. In 2025, global M2 rose from $102 trillion to $107 trillion by February, hinting at a potential Bitcoin uptrend by April. This interplay underscores Bitcoin’s sensitivity to monetary policy and liquidity trends. 0 reply
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