@sebasbue

Good morning family! ☕️ End of a wild week where many turned from bullish to bearish — and others lost it all. Let’s break everything down and draw some conclusions 👇 🟠 Key events for today 1️⃣ The European CPI comes out today, expected to drop from 2.2% to 2.1%. Europe isn’t facing the same inflationary pressure as the US because consumption remains weak. Germany’s Q3 GDP showed 0% growth and high unemployment, confirming stagnation. 2️⃣ We’ll also get the Chicago PMI, which measures manufacturing activity in the region and often anticipates the national reading. The forecast is 42.3 vs 40.6 previously. Still in contraction territory, but slightly improving. 🟠 Yesterday’s key news 1️⃣ Apple and Amazon beat earnings expectations, reinforcing the idea that the tech bubble still has room to run and continues to prop up the indexes. 2️⃣ The meeting between Trump and Xi was “positive” in tone, but with no real progress. China kept its high tariffs and didn’t gain any concrete benefits. It feels like Xi is simply buying time and keeping Trump calm — which could mean more noise later on. 3️⃣ The Repo market remains tight. In the US we track two key rates: the EFFR (Fed’s policy rate) and the SOFR, which reflects real repo transactions backed by Treasuries. Normally, SOFR stays equal to or below EFFR, but the spread is now around 15 basis points, signaling stress. Markets hope this tension will ease after the announced end of QT, as we saw mid-week. If SOFR spikes again, it could be a bad sign for risk assets. 🟠 What we see on the charts 1️⃣ Bitcoin is trying to regain the uptrend that started after the October 10th sell-off. For now, it hasn’t succeeded, though it did break the short-term downtrend. Bullish scenario: reclaim that trend and push higher, helped by the large number of shorts that could be liquidated. Bearish scenario: a drop toward 105,700 / 104,500 / 103,450, where most of the liquidity sits. Still, I don’t think we’re in a bear market — it’s a long consolidation range, and that’s not necessarily bad. 2️⃣ Ethereum remains weak and keeps losing ground to BTC. The green control zone is fading, and now the key level is 3,700. If that breaks, the next support sits around 3,400, aligning with the 200-day SMA on the daily chart. 🟠 Conclusion A week full of noise, headlines, and swings. But remember: the news always follows the trend. When markets rise, everything sounds bullish; when they fall, everything looks apocalyptic. From everything above, liquidity is the only thing that truly matters. The rest is just noise — and in a few days, nobody will even remember it. Happy Friday family, and have an amazing day 💪

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