Sebbue- base.eth (sebasbue)

Muy buenos días amigos!☕️ Viernes, último día de la semana y el plato fuerte. Hoy tenemos eventos que pueden marcar la tendencia en el corto plazo. Vamos a analizarlos juntos 👇 🟠 Noticias importantes a contar 1️⃣ Hoy se reúnen la Treasury Secretary Bessent y el Vice Premier chino He Lifeng para tratar el tema comercial. Con Bessent, se espera calma y buenas noticias. De lo contrario, sería negativo para el mercado. 2️⃣ Trump acaba de lanzar otra bomba con el tema de los aranceles, esta vez con Canadá. Puede parecer un país menor, pero es el segundo socio comercial más importante. 3️⃣ Tenemos el $IPC, el dato de la semana, y que marcará la próxima reunión de la FED. Como el gobierno sigue cerrado y no estaban obligados a comunicarlo, entendemos que será un dato positivo. Dejo aquí un gráfico de @GoldmanSachs para que veáis cómo podría reaccionar el SP y, en consecuencia, BTC según el resultado.

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Good morning family! ☕️ End of a wild week where many turned from bullish to bearish — and others lost it all. Let’s break everything down and draw some conclusions 👇 🟠 Key events for today 1️⃣ The European CPI comes out today, expected to drop from 2.2% to 2.1%. Europe isn’t facing the same inflationary pressure as the US because consumption remains weak. Germany’s Q3 GDP showed 0% growth and high unemployment, confirming stagnation. 2️⃣ We’ll also get the Chicago PMI, which measures manufacturing activity in the region and often anticipates the national reading. The forecast is 42.3 vs 40.6 previously. Still in contraction territory, but slightly improving. 🟠 Yesterday’s key news 1️⃣ Apple and Amazon beat earnings expectations, reinforcing the idea that the tech bubble still has room to run and continues to prop up the indexes. 2️⃣ The meeting between Trump and Xi was “positive” in tone, but with no real progress. China kept its high tariffs and didn’t gain any concrete benefits. It feels like Xi is simply buying time and keeping Trump calm — which could mean more noise later on. 3️⃣ The Repo market remains tight. In the US we track two key rates: the EFFR (Fed’s policy rate) and the SOFR, which reflects real repo transactions backed by Treasuries. Normally, SOFR stays equal to or below EFFR, but the spread is now around 15 basis points, signaling stress. Markets hope this tension will ease after the announced end of QT, as we saw mid-week. If SOFR spikes again, it could be a bad sign for risk assets. 🟠 What we see on the charts 1️⃣ Bitcoin is trying to regain the uptrend that started after the October 10th sell-off. For now, it hasn’t succeeded, though it did break the short-term downtrend. Bullish scenario: reclaim that trend and push higher, helped by the large number of shorts that could be liquidated. Bearish scenario: a drop toward 105,700 / 104,500 / 103,450, where most of the liquidity sits. Still, I don’t think we’re in a bear market — it’s a long consolidation range, and that’s not necessarily bad. 2️⃣ Ethereum remains weak and keeps losing ground to BTC. The green control zone is fading, and now the key level is 3,700. If that breaks, the next support sits around 3,400, aligning with the 200-day SMA on the daily chart. 🟠 Conclusion A week full of noise, headlines, and swings. But remember: the news always follows the trend. When markets rise, everything sounds bullish; when they fall, everything looks apocalyptic. From everything above, liquidity is the only thing that truly matters. The rest is just noise — and in a few days, nobody will even remember it. Happy Friday family, and have an amazing day 💪

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Muy buenos días familia ☕️ Día muy raro el de ayer, donde el mercado empezó a caer tanto en cripto como en tradicional sin una razón aparente. Vamos a analizarlo 👇 🟠 Noticias importantes a contar 1️⃣ $Netflix, uno de los pesos pesados del mercado, llegó a caer hasta un 10% en algunos momentos, arrastrando el índice y contagiando a otros sectores. Vimos caídas de hasta el 1.8% en el Nasdaq, algo bastante significativo. 2️⃣ El oro volvió a caer con fuerza por segundo día consecutivo tras su gran subida previa. Aún no está claro hacia dónde está fluyendo ese dinero, pero la sobrecompra era tan grande que ahora necesita un periodo de consolidación. 4️⃣ El VIX, índice de volatilidad, subió con fuerza y llegó a escalar un 16%, dando sensación de pánico. Parecía que algo se estaba rompiendo dentro del sistema porque no había ningún motivo claro de la subida pero finalmente corrigió buena parte del movimiento y todo quedó en un susto.

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Good morning, everyone, The market is bleeding out and it feels like there are no catalysts left. Is this the end? Let’s break it down 👇 🟠 What to expect this week 1️⃣ Most of the big companies have already reported earnings, except for Nvidia which will report later. Still, around 70% of the S&P 500 will already be starting their buyback programs this week. 2️⃣ After Powell’s hawkish tone the other day, we expect Trump to react, since he wants interest rates as low as possible. 3️⃣ We’re expecting liquidity to improve, as we mentioned in yesterday’s recap. This week will be key to seeing whether the end of QT is enough to contain the issues and prevent further stress. 4️⃣ We’ll see how many macro data points get released this week, considering the government is still shut down. The only one confirmed so far is the JOLTs private jobs report tomorrow, which will give us a read on the labor market and whether a rate cut in December is still on the table. 🟠 What the charts are showing 1️⃣ Bitcoin, like the rest of crypto, is showing weakness and has just lost the 200-day SMA on the daily timeframe. On the 4h, the trend is clearly bearish and there’s a key zone at 105,400 where over 3B in liquidations are sitting. If we get there, I’ll look to position myself. A clean sweep and quick bounce would be a very bullish sign. 2️⃣ Ethereum has lost the control range between 3,800 and 3,900 and has dropped to the lower end of the structure formed after the big selloff on Friday, October 10. If that doesn’t hold, the next major support is around 3,350, which also coincides with the 200-day SMA. Let’s hope price can defend that level. 3️⃣ Hype, after recovering its previous uptrend, has now broken below the trendline again in recent days. The 200-day SMA sits just below the current price, around 39, and should act as a key short-term reference. 🟠 Conclusion The market is heavy, and this always happens after a major drop. They drag out the pain until you sell, and then force you to buy back higher. It happened in August, it happened at the start of 2025, and it will keep happening. Stay patient. Hold your pools, your farms, and your plan. If key levels break or things worsen, we pull out and move on. If you did your homework, you should already be sitting mostly in cash and feeling calm. We’ve been in an uptrend since 2022 and there’s no clear signal yet of a structural reversal. More updates soon. Any questions, drop them in the comments or DM me. Big hug and happy Monday, fam. 💪

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