🔥 **Positive Scenario or Correction?**  

**Inflation Cooling**:  
- CPI: +0.2% m/m, +2.3% y/y (lowest since Feb 2021).  
- Core: +0.2% m/m, +2.8% y/y (post-COVID low).  
→ Soft landing odds up: **U.S. 2025 recession risk drops to 39%** (from 66%).  

**Key Dates**:  
- **May 15–30**: PPI/PCE data (Fed’s focus).  
- **May 29**: Q1 GDP revision.  
- **June 18**: Fed meeting.  
- **July 30**: Q2 GDP preview.  

**Mid-Term Risks**:  
- Debt ceiling talks resume **late June–July**; deadline **mid-July** (gov’t funds at risk by August).  
- U.S.-China tariff pause ends **August 10** (deal likely).  

**Long-Term Catalysts (Q4 2025)**:  
- State BTC reserves (NH: 5% budget), corporate BTC buys, stablecoin law, altcoin ETFs (~80 filings), SEC easing.  

**Strategy**:  
- **May–mid-June**: Rally window.  
- **Late June–August**: Volatility ahead.  
→ Take partial profits (up to 20%) if memecoins/FOMO spike.  

#Review