Theory

Trump is threatening a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods in an attempt to weaken Pix and strongarm the judiciary into freeing Bolsonaro. Ofc Trump didnt consider the fact that Brazil already has a trade surplus with the US. So as a result, exports return to the domestic market and the price of groceries immediately fall. 

Cost of coffee has dropped 4% in July, Oranges are down 5%, Beef is down 8%. The Tariffs are a lowkey blessing for Lula's center-left government, especially now that the major export agricultural conglomerates, a major supporter of Bolsonaro's far-right neoliberalism, have to work with Lula if they want tariff relief. Being publicly in favor of tariffs poses a big PR risk as Lula is riding the economic nationalism to higher approval ratings and a potential reelection run in 2026.