@ruminations

Rediscovering journalism from first principles: "around 3% of all accounts, generate the bulk of price discovery. Their trades predict future prices and final outcomes, make prices more accurate throughout a market's lifespan, and react to news the moment it arrives. The remaining majority does not produce accuracy; rather, it funds it. Their trades generate most of the volume, but little of the information, and their losses flow as profits to the informed minority. Prediction market accuracy thus reflects the wisdom of an informed minority, not the wisdom of the crowd." great article https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6617059

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