@ruminations

Pays to check Quotient in the morning. Quotient identified that the US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026 market was mispriced, given that the Iran FM was scheduled to visit Islamabad, and the U.S. had sent an advance team to prepare for a visit. We published the narrative to our site around 10am. Polymarket had the odds at 24%. We had the odds at 55%. Shortly afterwards, CNN reported that the Trump administration was dispatching Witkoff and Kushner to meet with the Iranians in Islamabad. The odds on Polymarket are now 71%. +221% ROI

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