@ruminations
Just transferred $300 of rewards to top performers on the Quotient forecasting leaderboard (minus Quotient founders and Q, our forecasting agent). Congrats to @yungwknd, @sky, @garrett, @mattlee, and @christopher!
Our new Quotient Score ranks forecasters 0–100 based on their prediction accuracy (80%), how well their takes land (10%), and how well they spot good calls by others (10%).
In practice: @sky ranks #5 with a 63.8 — 4W/4L on live markets, 1W/1L on resolved markets with +12.9 alpha (how far the market moved in his direction after he called it), and a 15/4 upvote ratio on his takes.
If the predictions behind his World Cup home-team advantage (the most upvoted take on the platform so far) pan out, his rank will move up fast.
Rewards are funded in part by trading ideas surfaced from our users' calls.
Long term, we plan to increase rewards substantially with revenue from the context graph our users help build and the forecasting agent their forecasts calibrate.
Secure your spot on Quotient. https://quotient.social
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