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Ceteris Paribus: Prediction Markets Can't Agree on the Truth

A look at why the prediction market landscape will be fragmented:

Since human societies rarely agree on who should define truth, each prediction market ends up forming its own silo, with its own oracle and rules, instead of converging on a single shared system.

Different referees lead to separate networks, each limited by the boundaries of its own community’s trust.

Source:

Ceteris Paribus: Prediction Markets Can't Agree on the Truth

A look at why the prediction market landscape will be fragmented:

Since human societies rarely agree on who should define truth, each prediction market ends up forming its own silo, with its own oracle and rules, instead of converging on a single shared system.

Different referees lead to separate networks, each limited by the boundaries of its own community’s trust.

Source: https://michaellwy.substack.com/p/prediction-markets-cant-agree-on