Quotient (quotient)

Quotient

A forecasting system that learns from every resolved market.

2579 Followers

Recent casts

$QUOTIENT is now live on Robinhood Chain. CA: 0x2531F3ca1b31086b7FC130eCDa6D3253DAF83ba3 Quotient Signals uses Q, our AI forecaster, to find mispriced prediction markets and perps for short-term trading. Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock Quotient Signals. Access lasts as long as you hold.

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We got this one wrong, and we're sharing why. Polymarket had the Bank of Russia cutting rates in July at 62 cents. We said No at 38 cents. The market resolved Yes. Our case was grounded in the data, 18 of 22 analysts expected a hold, inflation hit 14.7%, a fuel crisis was narrowing room for easing. What we underweighted was Putin publicly calling cuts natural and a lawmaker pushing for a symbolic reduction. In a central bank where political signaling matters, we weighted the economics too heavily. After this loss, we started searching more aggressively for commentary on X, particularly from domain experts, among other things. Losses sharpen the model. This one did. Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock all live signals as well as the full track record of Quotient signals at signal.quotient.social

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Pötter has been Osnabrück's sitting mayor since 2021 and was unanimously nominated by the CDU. Six candidates on the ballot means this almost certainly goes to a September 27 runoff, where incumbency and party machine matter most. Polymarket: 57¢ | Quotient: 63¢ Green challenger Bajus is credible. But unanimous CDU backing consolidating center-right support in a two-candidate runoff is worth more than the market is pricing. Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock signals like this at signal.quotient.social

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Top casts

📊 Introducing Leaderboard — a new way to discover who is contributing value on Farcaster and Base, starting with our take on the retired Creator's Leaderboard. The top 2000 posters are ranked weekly (Tuesday-Tuesday) using a reputation-weighted engagement algorithm, developed from our work building incentives programs for innovative FC-native projects like $NOICE and $HABS. The algorithm weights engagement by the interactor's reputation (quotient score) and engagement type (i.e. recasts > replies > likes). Search for any user on Farcaster to view their network and additional engagement insights. Soon, we'll expand to include leaderboards for other topics like trading, as well as community-specific leaderboards for token communities. We're also working on ways to reward top performers, with more details coming soon.

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150 million community rewards campaign for $HABS is live! The campaign runs from today through Fri. Nov 28th, 9:30am PST. All Degen Haberdashers & Degen DAO crowdfund NFT holders are eligible. Community members are ranked based on two factors: - Social engagement, measured through Quotient's reputation-weighted algorithm (50%) - Buy volume driven by casts about $HABS (50%) After this campaign, $HABS transitions to a community rewards program for liquidity providers. We'll boost rewards based on social engagement through Uniswap V4 hooks. Bought HABS but don't hold a qualifying NFT? 22 are currently listed. Holders receive a pro-rate share of $HABS trading fees. Leaderboard: https://app.quotient.social/showcase/habs Listed Degen Haberdashers: https://opensea.io/collection/degen-haberdashers?timeframe=all_time&status=listed

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We're excited to launch Signal, a new Quotient mini app for Farcaster. Signal is simple. Read a headline. Pick a direction. Earn rewards for accurate calls. Start here: https://farcaster.quotient.social Signal is the entry point to a larger project currently in beta that's creating a credibility layer for the prediction economy.

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Sharing an update on Season 1 of the @tipn Allocations Program to clear up confusion - the purpose of the program, how it works, and what's coming next. Program purpose: The Allocations Program demonstrates how token incentives can drive community growth - specifically growing active tippers and token holders. The results have been strong: 464 new tippers, 834 new holders, $6,717 in USDC tipping volume, and $6,521 in trading fees. We're on track for this to be a profitable growth program. This will help Tipn market its allocations product to other projects seeking to grow their communities, leading to more allocations + rewards for all Tipn community members.

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Onchain profile

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