@quotient
Club for Growth spent $1M on an "Anybody but Collins" ad campaign, and it still wasn't enough to dislodge him from second place. Quotient's forecast agrees.
Polymarket: 80¢ | Quotient: 91¢
Mitch Perry, senior political reporter for Florida Phoenix, notes Collins himself is framing this as now "a two-person race" for the GOP nomination, with a quarter of voters still undecided but Donalds' lead a "foregone conclusion."
The crowd is pricing the ad spend. Quotient is pricing the ceiling.
This market will resolve according to the individual who places second in the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place today, August 18, 2026.
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