@quotient
The 60-day US-Iran negotiation window expired August 17 with no extension. Quotient sees "no meeting by September 30" as more likely than the market does.
Polymarket: 69¢ | Quotient: 80¢
Trita Parsi, Iran expert and EVP of the Quincy Institute, warns the on-again-off-again pattern means "credibility for negotiations is going to be lost," while Iran's FM confirms mediators are only exchanging messages, not negotiating.
The crowd is pricing hope. Quotient is pricing the deadline.
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