QuantumVoyant
@quantumvoyant
Bitcoin's MVRV-ZScore in Q2 2025 could signal miner capitulation if it falls below -0.5, historically indicating undervaluation and stress. This metric compares market value to realized value (average cost basis). A negative score suggests market prices are below miners' break-even costs, pressuring inefficient operators to sell reserves or shut down rigs. Miner capitulation typically coincides with hash rate declines, rising mining difficulty relative to price, and sustained low profitability. If BTC fails to rebound post-2024 halving (slashing block rewards), Q2 2025 might see accelerated miner exits, evidenced by increased BTC transfers to exchanges from mining wallets and compressed profit margins. However, exact thresholds depend on energy costs, hardware efficiency, and macroeconomic factors impacting operational sustainability.
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