@purp
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GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK — 30/60/90 DAY FORECASTS
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Scenarios: 6
Simulations per scenario: 500
Assets analyzed: 10
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Running: SOFT_LANDING (30% probability)...
30d: Recession=6% | Top: SOL 11.1% | GDP: 1.5% | CPI: 2.5%
60d: Recession=6% | Top: SOL 24% | GDP: 1.5% | CPI: 2.5%
90d: Recession=6% | Top: SOL 39.9% | GDP: 1.5% | CPI: 2.5%
Running: HARD_LANDING (20% probability)...
30d: Recession=91% | Top: XAU 8.3% | GDP: -1.0% | CPI: 1.5%
60d: Recession=91% | Top: XAU 18.6% | GDP: -1.0% | CPI: 1.5%
90d: Recession=91% | Top: XAU 24.9% | GDP: -1.0% | CPI: 1.5%
Running: STAGFLATION (15% probability)...
30d: Recession=33.2% | Top: CL 14.9% | GDP: 0.5% | CPI: 4.5%
60d: Recession=33.7% | Top: CL 30.8% | GDP: 0.5% | CPI: 4.5%
90d: Recession=34% | Top: CL 44.7% | GDP: 0.5% | CPI: 4.5%
Running: GOLDILOCKS (10% probability)...
30d: Recession=1.2% | Top: SOL 19.3% | GDP: 3.5% | CPI: 2.0%
60d: Recession=1.2% | Top: SOL 39.2% | GDP: 3.5% | CPI: 2.0%
90d: Recession=1.2% | Top: SOL 65.5% | GDP: 3.5% | CPI: 2.0%
Running: GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS (18% probability)...
30d: Recession=94% | Top: CL 34.2% | GDP: -1.5% | CPI: 6.0%
60d: Recession=94% | Top: CL 60.3% | GDP: -1.5% | CPI: 6.0%
90d: Recession=94% | Top: CL 80.1% | GDP: -1.5% | CPI: 6.0%
Running: PEACE_DIVIDEND (7% probability)...
30d: Recession=1.8% | Top: SOL 18.3% | GDP: 3.0% | CPI: 1.0%
60d: Recession=1.8% | Top: SOL 36.3% | GDP: 3.0% | CPI: 1.0%
90d: Recession=1.8% | Top: SOL 58.6% | GDP: 3.0% | CPI: 1.0%
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GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK REPORT
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PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED MACRO FORECAST
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30-DAY OUTLOOK:
GDP Growth: 0.6% (current: 2.0%)
Inflation: 3.1% (current: 3.0%)
Fed Funds: 2.56% (current: 3.63%)
Unemployment: 4.8% (current: 4.0%)
VIX: 25.3 (current: 18.0)
Recession Prob: 42.1%
Yield Curve: +1.06%
60-DAY OUTLOOK:
GDP Growth: 0.6% (current: 2.0%)
Inflation: 3.1% (current: 3.0%)
Fed Funds: 2.57% (current: 3.63%)
Unemployment: 4.8% (current: 4.0%)
VIX: 25.2 (current: 18.0)
Recession Prob: 42.2%
Yield Curve: +1.06%
90-DAY OUTLOOK:
GDP Growth: 0.6% (current: 2.0%)
Inflation: 3.1% (current: 3.0%)
Fed Funds: 2.57% (current: 3.63%)
Unemployment: 4.8% (current: 4.0%)
VIX: 25.2 (current: 18.0)
Recession Prob: 42.3%
Yield Curve: +1.06%
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PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED ASSET RETURNS (Top 10 by 90-day return)
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Asset | 90d Return | Direction | Best Scenario
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XAU | +13.2% | BULLISH | GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS
CL | +12.7% | BULLISH | GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS
SOL | +12.4% | BULLISH | GOLDILOCKS
NVDA | +10.7% | BULLISH | GOLDILOCKS
XAG | +8.9% | BULLISH | GOLDILOCKS
WHEAT | +7.9% | BULLISH | GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS
XLE | +7.5% | BULLISH | GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS
COPPER | +4.1% | BULLISH | GOLDILOCKS
TLT | +4.0% | BULLISH | HARD_LANDING
BTC | +2.9% | BULLISH | GOLDILOCKS
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SCENARIO COMPARISON — 90-DAY ASSET RETURNS (%)
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Scenario SPX500 NAS100 BTC XAU CL TLT DXY
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SOFT_LANDING +15.5% +22.5% +29.4% -8.6% +2.3% +12.0% -6.3%
HARD_LANDING -19.7% -27.5% -34.9% +24.9% -29.2% +21.7% +8.2%
STAGFLATION -14.6% -21.9% -20.4% +34.6% +44.7% -15.1% +2.0%
GOLDILOCKS +27.9% +38.4% +55.1% -14.6% 0.0% +5.2% -9.8%
GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS -29.9% -38.3% -25.2% +50.5% +80.1% -18.3% +14.8%
PEACE_DIVIDEND +30.1% +42.1% +44.5% -29.4% -46.5% +15.1% -15.2%
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SECTOR ROTATION SIGNAL (Probability-Weighted)
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COMMODITIES +14.7% OVERWEIGHT ▲
PRECIOUS_METALS +14.5% OVERWEIGHT ▲
ENERGY +10.1% OVERWEIGHT ▲
FIXED_INCOME +4.0% OVERWEIGHT ▲
CRYPTO +3.0% MARKET WEIGHT ►
FOREX +0.7% MARKET WEIGHT ►
EQUITIES -1.8% REDUCE ▾
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DECISION SUPPORT
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RECESSION PROBABILITY: 42.3%
⚡ MODERATE RECESSION RISK — Cautious but not defensive
RECOMMENDED: Balanced allocation. Add tail hedges.
INFLATION OUTLOOK: 3.1%
FED POLICY: 2.57% (from 3.63%)