Purp now 100% NSPM 7 Compliant pfp
Purp now 100% NSPM 7 Compliant

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================================================================================ GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK — 30/60/90 DAY FORECASTS ================================================================================ Scenarios: 6 Simulations per scenario: 500 Assets analyzed: 10 ================================================================================ Running: SOFT_LANDING (30% probability)... 30d: Recession=6% | Top: SOL 11.1% | GDP: 1.5% | CPI: 2.5% 60d: Recession=6% | Top: SOL 24% | GDP: 1.5% | CPI: 2.5% 90d: Recession=6% | Top: SOL 39.9% | GDP: 1.5% | CPI: 2.5% Running: HARD_LANDING (20% probability)... 30d: Recession=91% | Top: XAU 8.3% | GDP: -1.0% | CPI: 1.5% 60d: Recession=91% | Top: XAU 18.6% | GDP: -1.0% | CPI: 1.5% 90d: Recession=91% | Top: XAU 24.9% | GDP: -1.0% | CPI: 1.5% Running: STAGFLATION (15% probability)... 30d: Recession=33.2% | Top: CL 14.9% | GDP: 0.5% | CPI: 4.5% 60d: Recession=33.7% | Top: CL 30.8% | GDP: 0.5% | CPI: 4.5% 90d: Recession=34% | Top: CL 44.7% | GDP: 0.5% | CPI: 4.5% Running: GOLDILOCKS (10% probability)... 30d: Recession=1.2% | Top: SOL 19.3% | GDP: 3.5% | CPI: 2.0% 60d: Recession=1.2% | Top: SOL 39.2% | GDP: 3.5% | CPI: 2.0% 90d: Recession=1.2% | Top: SOL 65.5% | GDP: 3.5% | CPI: 2.0% Running: GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS (18% probability)... 30d: Recession=94% | Top: CL 34.2% | GDP: -1.5% | CPI: 6.0% 60d: Recession=94% | Top: CL 60.3% | GDP: -1.5% | CPI: 6.0% 90d: Recession=94% | Top: CL 80.1% | GDP: -1.5% | CPI: 6.0% Running: PEACE_DIVIDEND (7% probability)... 30d: Recession=1.8% | Top: SOL 18.3% | GDP: 3.0% | CPI: 1.0% 60d: Recession=1.8% | Top: SOL 36.3% | GDP: 3.0% | CPI: 1.0% 90d: Recession=1.8% | Top: SOL 58.6% | GDP: 3.0% | CPI: 1.0% ================================================================================ GLOBAL MACRO OUTLOOK REPORT ================================================================================ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED MACRO FORECAST -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30-DAY OUTLOOK: GDP Growth: 0.6% (current: 2.0%) Inflation: 3.1% (current: 3.0%) Fed Funds: 2.56% (current: 3.63%) Unemployment: 4.8% (current: 4.0%) VIX: 25.3 (current: 18.0) Recession Prob: 42.1% Yield Curve: +1.06% 60-DAY OUTLOOK: GDP Growth: 0.6% (current: 2.0%) Inflation: 3.1% (current: 3.0%) Fed Funds: 2.57% (current: 3.63%) Unemployment: 4.8% (current: 4.0%) VIX: 25.2 (current: 18.0) Recession Prob: 42.2% Yield Curve: +1.06% 90-DAY OUTLOOK: GDP Growth: 0.6% (current: 2.0%) Inflation: 3.1% (current: 3.0%) Fed Funds: 2.57% (current: 3.63%) Unemployment: 4.8% (current: 4.0%) VIX: 25.2 (current: 18.0) Recession Prob: 42.3% Yield Curve: +1.06% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED ASSET RETURNS (Top 10 by 90-day return) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Asset | 90d Return | Direction | Best Scenario ------------------------------------------------------- XAU | +13.2% | BULLISH | GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS CL | +12.7% | BULLISH | GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS SOL | +12.4% | BULLISH | GOLDILOCKS NVDA | +10.7% | BULLISH | GOLDILOCKS XAG | +8.9% | BULLISH | GOLDILOCKS WHEAT | +7.9% | BULLISH | GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS XLE | +7.5% | BULLISH | GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS COPPER | +4.1% | BULLISH | GOLDILOCKS TLT | +4.0% | BULLISH | HARD_LANDING BTC | +2.9% | BULLISH | GOLDILOCKS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCENARIO COMPARISON — 90-DAY ASSET RETURNS (%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scenario SPX500 NAS100 BTC XAU CL TLT DXY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOFT_LANDING +15.5% +22.5% +29.4% -8.6% +2.3% +12.0% -6.3% HARD_LANDING -19.7% -27.5% -34.9% +24.9% -29.2% +21.7% +8.2% STAGFLATION -14.6% -21.9% -20.4% +34.6% +44.7% -15.1% +2.0% GOLDILOCKS +27.9% +38.4% +55.1% -14.6% 0.0% +5.2% -9.8% GEOPOLITICAL_CRISIS -29.9% -38.3% -25.2% +50.5% +80.1% -18.3% +14.8% PEACE_DIVIDEND +30.1% +42.1% +44.5% -29.4% -46.5% +15.1% -15.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECTOR ROTATION SIGNAL (Probability-Weighted) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMMODITIES +14.7% OVERWEIGHT ▲ PRECIOUS_METALS +14.5% OVERWEIGHT ▲ ENERGY +10.1% OVERWEIGHT ▲ FIXED_INCOME +4.0% OVERWEIGHT ▲ CRYPTO +3.0% MARKET WEIGHT ► FOREX +0.7% MARKET WEIGHT ► EQUITIES -1.8% REDUCE ▾ ================================================================================ DECISION SUPPORT ================================================================================ RECESSION PROBABILITY: 42.3% ⚡ MODERATE RECESSION RISK — Cautious but not defensive RECOMMENDED: Balanced allocation. Add tail hedges. INFLATION OUTLOOK: 3.1% FED POLICY: 2.57% (from 3.63%)
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