Economics

Half of all steel and aluminum that Canada produces goes to the USA normally. We are talking about $7.1 billion (USD) in steel and $9.4 billion in aluminum in 2024. This is 46% of the USA's total steel and aluminum imports.

If these sectoral tariffs do double from 25% to 50% on June 4th then there will be a lot of job losses on both sides of the border and little to no steel and aluminum flowing into the USA.

Steel and aluminum inventories in the USA are currently at multi decade lows. A June 4th tariff date would cause current supplies to be used up quickly and shortages would begin in July. The USA can theoretically produce enough steel domestically, but ramping up steel mills isn't an instantaneous process. In terms of aluminum, even if all idle smelters are restarted then domestic aluminum production would still not be able to meet demand.

It is also worth noting that steel and aluminum tariffs were not (temporarily) struct down by the trade court's decision earlier this week.

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Did you see the Nippon Steel deal is back on now too apparently? 🫣

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Depends on the mill. 

The unioners were pissed already because the mills from JPN they’d get required layoffs due to requiring less labor to operate. 

So I’m guessing we’re getting those automated arc one and the tariffs/econ will be the scapegoat for the job losses instead.

I just looked it up now that you mentioned it. It was framed as an acquisition before and is now being framed as a partnership with American oversight. I guess the new version includes building a new mill.

What's your take?