talking to friend today who reminded me:

1. when c came out, some engineers were flaunting how they could solve a problem in 50 assembly instructions vs the 250 the compiler was generating. over time, assembly was less precious and we moved on. the same is true for high-level programming languages and codegen today. this is the bull case

2. if you've done anything robotics or cognitive system, you'll know LLM's are far away from anything close to an AGI. there's quite a ton we need to do to be even at level 2 let alone 5 if there's some scale like self-driving. this is the bear case (somewhat). carmack talks about it here as well

talking to friend today who reminded me:

1. when c came out, some engineers were flaunting how they could solve a problem in 50 assembly instructions vs the 250 the compiler was generating. over time, assembly was less precious and we moved on. the same is true for high-level programming languages and codegen today. this is the bull case

2. if you've done anything robotics or cognitive system, you'll know LLM's are far away from anything close to an AGI. there's quite a ton we need to do to be even at level 2 let alone 5 if there's some scale like self-driving. this is the bear case (somewhat). carmack talks about it here as well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pdlTMdo7pY

there's a third case (full of idiots) selling ai slop and vibe coding to million dollars. let's ignore the non-serious, scammy people