@nickysap
Prediction markets are a unique way to gauge sentiment and appear to be remarkably efficient. But as a user, I'm struggling to understand how to find an edge.
For political markets, unless you are privy to insider knowledge, you're working off the same news and information basically everyone on earth has. Same with sports. The market has already priced in the outcome by the time you get there.
Spreads are tight enough, usually decent liquidity for small size, but your take home is also limited as a result.
In the absence of domain expertise and impossibly fast execution on breaking news, your only options are farming tiny wins off obvious outcomes or trying to arb across platforms, which can't possibly be worth the time/effort required.
Trading has an asymmetrical upside and there are dozens of strategies that can grant you an edge.
Prediction markets seem like a vig-free betting protocol.
I'm not certain there's an efficient way to play these. Or perhaps I'm missing something.
What do you think?
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