Credit application rejection rates are soaring: The overall rejection rate for US credit applications is up to 24.8% over the last 12 months, the highest since the data began in 2014, according to the NY Fed. The rate has risen +10.4 percentage points since February 2020. This comes as the rejection rate for mortgage refinances jumped to 45.7%, an all-time high. At the same time, mortgage rejection rates hit 23.0%, the highest since 2015. The rejection rate for auto loans reached 15.2%, the 2nd-highest on record. Meanwhile, credit card rejection rates held steady at 21.2%. Credit is becoming harder to access.
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Americans are underwater on their car loans: 28.1% of trade-ins for new-car purchases involved negative equity in Q3 2025, the highest since Q1 2021. For any Q3, this marks the highest level since the 2020 pandemic. The percentage has risen +12.6 points over the last 3 years. This comes as the average amount owed on underwater loans hit a record $6,905 last quarter. Car owners are struggling with record-high prices, with new vehicles averaging over $50,000 for the first time in September, up more than +25% over the last 5 years. Car affordability is becoming a growing crisis.
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Bitcoin extends gains and rises above $91,500, now up +14% since the November 21st low.
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