Philosophy

If I predict rain tomorrow based on satellite and radar imagery showing a cold front forming, and it does rain, I’m right.

If I predict rain because I saw a black cat walk under a ladder, and it rains, am I right (but for the wrong reasons) or am I just wrong?

Can one ever be right for the wrong reasons?

Aviator, diver, Etherean, nexialist, PhD in aviation ∩ climate science | Host of /diving /ethfinance /eth-staker /geopolitics /science /singapore /thomas

This is almost a Gettier problem

The traditional criteria for knowledge is a Justified True Belief. Here, your belief is not justified, because cats do not relate causally with rain

So you are just wrong
But it gets more interesting…

Be specific.    
Building productscore.org, @germanify // leonasskau.co.uk // Hosting /geopolitics, /strategy, /leo
d33m:mun

What matters is perspective. I feel you need to be able to intuit a causal logic from Cat to Rain, from Smoke to Fire, for there to actually be knowledge

Sure, you could be right, but knowledge is more important

A Gettier problem is when even your justification is kinda right, but it’s still uncomfortable

you see smoke in the distance… ‘there must be a fire’

But actually all you saw were birds flying around the fire, which itself you didn’t see

You only saw the birds bc of the fire, but you did not know this

Thank you! Getting problems are indeed what I had in mind, inspired by this old post:

2. as an academic, Gettier used to spend all his time coming up with problems to traditional models like JTB. He would never publish. He would just write these articles and put them in a drawer.

until one day his dpt heads got fed up and said he head to publish something

His original paper was just 3 pages long

some fun facts about Gettier:
1. my smoke/fire example comes from 8th century Indian philosopher Dharmottara, who mentioned this problem well before the West even had universities

Thank you! Getting problems are indeed what I had in mind, inspired by this old post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7c7crvbG62KL8kAuW/right-for-the-wrong-reasons

justificationism will leave one perpetually confused