Geopolitics

I asked Claude Opus 4 for an analysis of risks to Israel, the occupied territories, and U.S. assets from nuclear strikes of various yields on Iranian targets, particularly in June.

I prompted Claude to examine academic and military research on such scenarios, determine if there’s scientific consensus, and base its analysis on the most rigorous, evidence-based modeling publicly available. 

From the executive summary Claude generated:

"Nuclear strikes on Iranian targets would create devastating transboundary contamination affecting the entire Middle East region. Based on atmospheric dispersion modeling and historical fallout data, even 'limited' strikes would contaminate Israel, Palestinian territories, and U.S. military installations across the Gulf region. June meteorological conditions would maximize downwind transport, creating an unprecedented humanitarian and military catastrophe."

The end will be diplomatic, not military,” one Israeli source told CNN, adding the Israeli hope is now that its ongoing military action “weakens Iran’s negotiating hand” in any future nuclear talks.