LEVIN 🎩

@levingood

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Key Data and Earnings Schedule for Next Week (Critical for May Rate Cut Decision) Major Data Releases Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings (labor market indicator), Consumer Confidence Index Wednesday: ADP Employment Report, Q1 GDP Preliminary Estimate, Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), earnings reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Manufacturing PMI, earnings reports from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (job additions, unemployment rate, wage growth) Key Focus Areas Economic Momentum: Will GDP growth slow? Will Core PCE align closer to the Fed’s target? Labor Market Signals: A weak Nonfarm report could strengthen expectations for a May rate cut. Tech Sector Trends: Earnings from the "Big Four" tech giants (MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN) will test the AI and cloud growth narrative, impacting broader market sentiment. Strategy Notes Market volatility may intensify amid shifting rate-cut expectations and inflation data.

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The Born Businessman Trump 🫡 — America's First President to Launch a Memecoin + Tokenize Dinner Opportunities On April 19, news broke out, and late on April 23, an announcement invited the top 220 token holders to a private dinner. In just nine days👇 Binance TRUMP spot trading volume surged 202% over nine days, with a single-day record of 74.69 million tokens traded on April 23, totaling $940 million in volume. Binance TRUMP 24H spot + futures trading volume hit $2.782 billion, ranking Top 3 on the exchange. DEX TRUMP 24H trading volume reached $489 million. $TRUMP price surged 94.6% in nine days, with a staggering 112% price swing.

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Murtaza Hussain

Excerpt from Politico story about the meltdown at Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon. This guy was his chief of staff:

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Mystery Whale Moves 118MinBitcoin:BullishBetorWarningSign?∗∗Afreshwalletjustpulled∗∗1,398BTC(118MinBitcoin:BullishBetorWarningSign?∗∗Afreshwalletjustpulled∗∗1,398BTC(118.3 million) from Kraken, igniting debates across crypto circles. While the move screams institutional involvement, its intent remains shrouded. Key Context Whale Patterns: Massive withdrawals often precede major market shifts—think accumulation before rallies or stealth exits before downturns. Macro Jitters: Upcoming U.S. inflation data and global trade tensions loom, creating a powder keg for Bitcoin’s price. Technical Signals: BTC’s price clings to a critical support zone. A break below 85KcouIdtriggerpanic;asurgepast 85Kcouldtriggerpanic;asurgepast88K might fuel FOMO Bottom Line This isn’t retail money. Whether it’s a calculated bet on Bitcoin’s post-halving surge or a hedge against macro chaos, one thing’s clear: Big players are positioning. Traders, brace for volatility. Hodlers, keep calm and stack sats

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Rational Investment Reminders Given heightened short-term market sentiment, investors should: ① Maintain low leverage (≤3x). ② Allocate ≥60% of holdings to long-term positions. ③ Track U.S. Treasury issuance and federal fund rate trends. #MacroEconomyAndCryptoMarket #AssetAllocationStrategy #BlockchainCompliance This content is not investment advice. Data sources: Bloomberg Terminal, CoinMetrics, SEC filings.

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2️⃣ Monetary Policy Expectations • High tariffs may exacerbate U.S. inflationary pressures, forcing the Fed to delay balance sheet reduction. • Crypto analyst Arthur Hayes predicts: Global central banks may restart QE in 2024, with Bitcoin becoming a primary liquidity overflow beneficiary.

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3️⃣ Accelerated Regulatory Compliance • Policy uncertainty fuels cross-border capital flows through compliant crypto channels (e.g., BiyaPay). • USDT-based direct trading of U.S./Hong Kong stocks saw a 37% weekly volume increase, reflecting避险 demand. Data Insights & Strategic Recommendations • On-Chain Data: 21,000 BTC net outflow from exchanges in 7 days; whale address holdings hit yearly highs. • Technical Analysis: $83,000 is a critical psychological threshold. A weekly close above could signal further upside. • Risk Alert: Tariff policy implementation remains uncertain; monitor short-term volatility risks. Institutional Perspectives ▫️ Morgan Stanley: Geopolitical tensions + monetary policy shifts create long-term crypto tailwinds. ▫️ Glassnode: Bitcoin’s path to 132 , 000 i n 2024 r e q u i r e s b r e a k i n g t h e 132,000in2024requiresbreakingthe90,000 resistance. ▫️ Bloomberg: A Trump election win could propel Bitcoin as a "new reserve asset" via policy synergy.

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📈 In-Depth Analysis: Trump's New Tariff Policy and Bitcoin Market Dynamics Policy Background On April 10, former U.S. President Donald Trump proposed a "differentiated tariff policy": imposing 125% punitive tariffs on select countries while suspending high tariffs for 90 days (retaining only a 10% baseline tariff) for compliant nations. The market interprets this as a political strategy to "reshape global trade patterns." Market Logic Breakdown 1️⃣ Safe-Haven Asset Value Highlighted • Escalating tariff disputes heighten risks to U.S. dollar credibility, driving institutional allocations to Bitcoin as a non-sovereign hedge. • While gold and Bitcoin both rose, Bitcoin’s single-day 8% surge significantly outperformed traditional safe-haven assets.

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Smart Money Move: Treat every rally as a potential bull trap — scale in gradually, never YOLO your portfolio. When BlackRock talks, retail listens. Their 2024 Institutional Survey shows 76% of clients are hoarding cash… and they’re not wrong. Pro Tip: In chess terms — play defensive openings. As Ray Dalio would say: "He who survives the storm owns the beach."

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BlackRock CEO Drops Bombshell: Three Warnings Every Investor Must Hear "The U.S. is already in recession. Equity markets could plunge another 20%. Rates may rise again." Let’s dissect these chilling statements from the world’s largest asset manager: 1️⃣ Recession Reality Check: Forget "soft landing" fantasies — BlackRock declares the downturn already here. With $10 trillion under management, their data models aren’t guessing games. 2️⃣ Equity Avalanche Alert: A potential 20% nosedive? That’s not a correction — it’s systemic unraveling. Remember, this firm predicted the 2008 crash weeks before Lehman fell. 3️⃣ Rate Hike Roulette: Even as markets beg for cuts, the Fed might reload bullets. Translation: bond bloodbaths and zombie companies imploding.

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Market Now Offers Compelling Value: I've Been Accumulating Spot Positions in Batches! Currently, #BTC dominance sits at 63.37% — not yet panic-level. Historically, extreme fear pushes it above 68%, a key metric to watch. Stop Betting Against Your Own Future! As Charlie Munger warned: "I’ve seen more people fail through shorting and leverage than any other single factor." Why not embrace a slow-but-steady strategy? Be the tortoise, not the hedge fund gambler.

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Tariff "Nuclear Bomb" Ignites Global Chaos, Commodities Collapse Policy Shock: Trump’s April 2 announcement of a 10% baseline tariff on all trading partners—with rates as high as 49% for some nations—sparked fears of global supply chain ruptures. Retaliatory tariffs worldwide amplified volatility, stoking fears of stagflation. Commodity Meltdown: WTI crude crashed below 60/barrel(4−yearlow),goldfellunder 60/barrel(4−yearlow),goldfellunder3,000, copper plunged 8% in a day, and traditional safe havens like the yen faltered. Market Chaos Far From Over: What’s Next for Investors? Wall Street’s Gloom: Analysts warn that prolonged tariffs could slash S&P 500 profits by one-third, cripple private fundraising, and trigger a corporate bankruptcy wave. Policy Countdown: U.S. Commerce Secretary confirmed tariffs will take effect on April 9. Markets cling to hopes of an 11th-hour reversal, but the White House remains defiant.

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Crypto "Safe Haven Myth" Shatters, 280,000 Traders Wiped Out Bitcoin Plunge: Bitcoin tumbled 7% in 24 hours, briefly dipping below 77,000,whileEthereumcrashed1277,000,whileEthereumcrashed12877 million in crypto positions were liquidated in a single day, leaving 280,000 investors trapped in a "long squeeze." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bassett’s earlier claim that Bitcoin is "the new gold" backfired as skepticism grows over crypto’s避险属性 (safe-haven appeal). On-Chain Data Divergence: Despite the crash, long-term holders remain steadfast, with Bitcoin reserves on exchanges declining. Stablecoin market caps rose against the trend, signaling potential bargain-hunting.

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Global Financial Markets in Turmoil: Crypto and U.S. Stocks Plunge in "Bloodbath" Within 24 Hours, Tariff Storm Triggers Historic Sell-Off U.S. Stocks Crash to Record Lows, Panic Echoes 2008 Crisis Market Collapse: Following two consecutive days of steep declines last week, U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower on April 7, with Nasdaq futures plunging over 5%, S&P 500 futures down nearly 5%, and Dow futures dropping 3.7%. In just two days, $6.6 trillion in market value evaporated, marking the worst quarterly start since 2008. The Nasdaq has entered a technical bear market (down over 20% from its peak). Recession Alarm: JPMorgan raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 60%, while Goldman Sachs warned of a 35% chance within the next 12 months. Analysts caution that prolonged "reciprocal tariffs" under Trump’s policies could push both the U.S. and Europe into recession.

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Wishing you a pleasant weekend.

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[BTC's Position in Liquidation Hierarchy] The cryptocurrency demonstrates similar dynamics with extended response latency. BTC's 30% correction (11k→8k+) preceded traditional market turmoil. Current risk: Further market deterioration could trigger: Primary liquidation target: Gold reserves Secondary liquidation target: BTC positions [Critical Monitoring Parameters] BTC ETF flows: Accelerating net outflows (>$500M/week) would signal institutional deleveraging CME futures basis: Contango narrowing below 5% indicates weakening institutional demand [Risk Management Protocol] Leverage prohibition: Eliminate futures/contract exposure immediately DCA Implementation: Deploy capital in 5-7 tranches across 20%+ drawdown thresholds Liquidity preservation: Maintain 40%+ cash reserves for potential black swan events

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[Visual Analysis: Parallels Between SP500 & BTC Market Behavior] Attached are comparative charts showing: Top: SP500 Index trajectory (Feb-Mar 2020) Bottom: BTC price movement (Feb-Mar 2020) Key Observations: While BTC exhibited amplified volatility (theoretically 2%+ drop per 1% SP500 decline), it maintained relative resilience until the March 12 (312) liquidity crisis. This decoupling pattern warrants attention in current market conditions. [Cross-Asset Liquidation Mechanics] Q: Why did gold - the traditional safe haven - decline during the crash? A: Two primary drivers: Industrial Demand Factor: Gold's use in electronics manufacturing created tariff-induced supply chain pressures Margin Call Dominance: Institutional liquidations forced leveraged positions to unwind, making gold (high liquidity asset) first casualty for cash raising. Long-term gold fundamentals remain intact.

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Gold’s Path: Technicalsupportat3,050amissmaydrivepricestowardtheall−timehighof 3,050—amissmaydrivepricestowardtheall−timehighof3,167; a beat could trigger short-term pullbacks, but geopolitics and rate-cut expectations underpin mid-term upside. Wild Cards: Trump’s tariff threats and South Korea’s political turmoil fuel safe-haven demand, while wage growth and data revisions may amplify swings.

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