Back to the point, are we in a bull market now?

1. Loose monetary environment.

We are now in the process of moving from monetary tightening to monetary easing, and are even still in a relatively tight stage. So in essence, we have not entered the stage of monetary easing. After all, interest rate cuts have been suspended.

2. Low interest rates close to zero.

The current interest rate is 4.5%, which is still high from a historical perspective. Although high interest rates cannot prevent the bull market from continuing, they will accelerate the end of the bull market and increase the probability of an economic recession.

3. Quantitative easing and/or balance sheet expansion.

None of this happens now. Not only is there no easing, but the balance sheet is still shrinking, and the shrinkage has not even been suspended.