Ethereum

Debate on whether prediction markets are good or bad.

One major point I will add is that right now the major markets mostly don't pay interest, which makes them very unappealing for hedging because to participate at all you sacrifice a guaranteed 4% APY on the dollar.

I expect lots of hedging use cases to open up once that gets solved and volumes increase more.

Debate on whether prediction markets are good or bad.

One major point I will add is that right now the major markets mostly don't pay interest, which makes them very unappealing for hedging because to participate at all you sacrifice a guaranteed 4% APY on the dollar.

I expect lots of hedging use cases to open up once that gets solved and volumes increase more.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jc_46jk6UEdDY7Dc3hoX0gkTAyXAE07sjV93jPbrU40/mobilebasic

Bad. There is no correlation between monetary conviction (which scales relative to personal capital) and accuracy.  Even if you believe in "the wisdom of crowds" (and I don't) these markets are no better than coin based governance voting. Calling gambling a "prediction market" is weird NIH we should avoid.

Maschinen Krieger, scale models and the occasional Gundam. 

Ethereum Core Dev - Besu - PG4LYFE

In my experience, you stop being so confident and trying to prove your point to someone else if you realize that you could lose money and that your confidence isn't actually that confident. You start checking facts, working with interpretations, or simply cutting out the noise. They are much more informative than journalists who write headlines for money.