@kazani
We’re heading towards a future in which intelligence is too cheap to meter.
1. “GPT-4-class” inference prices have fallen by ~1000× over ~2 years.
2. ARC Prize reports ~390× lower cost per task for near-SOTA ARC-AGI-1 performance over ~1 year (o3 preview: ~88% at est. ~$4.5k/task → GPT-5.2 Pro: 90.5% at $11.64/task).
3. GPT-5.1 sometimes needs up to ~2× more output tokens than GPT-5.2 for similar SWE-Bench performance; and on ARC-AGI-2 up to ~2.7× more tokens for similar performance.
If these trends continue, then once we reach human-level AI, the marginal cost of “white-collar cognition” could rapidly become orders of magnitude cheaper than human labor.
Sources:
- https://andreyfradkin.com/assets/LLM_Demand_12_12_2025.pdf
- https://x.com/arcprize/status/1999182732845547795
- https://x.com/tobyordoxford/status/1999870642032967987
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