@kagami
the average mlb game has the potential for 1800-2400 micro bet opportunities
baseball remains one of the more unique sports to bet on. there’s discrete, measurable outcomes and an incredible amount of data availability
this got me curious about how easy it is for a person to place micro-bets (the main way thompson lost his money) on baseball
claude ran through all the available micro-bet markets on fan duel and found that a person could place between 100-130 micro-bets in the average half inning of baseball
these bets span three main categories:
- pitch level (over/under 95 mph first pitch of an inning)
- play level (a ball in play / strike out in the at bat)
- half-inning special (a triple play turned in the inning)
with the average micro bet between $5-$20, it’s easy to see how quickly this could add up during a single game, let alone whole season
https://x.com/phillysport/status/2075231542633263193?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg
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