@kagami
what's going on with rafael devers—a deep dive with help from a custom claude statcast skill
rafael devers is a career .274 / .346 / .500 hitter with a .357 woba. this year, he's hitting .210 / .250 / .290 with a .241 woba. he's walking less, hitting the ball with less authority, and striking out at a career high.
he's in the middle of a 10 yr / $313.5m contract that ends in 2033 which has many giants fans wondering if buster posey traded for a toxic contract.
so, what's causing rafael devers' abysmal start?
- a continual bat speed decline: his average bat speed now sits below league average. his average bat speed has fallen from 73.4 mph in 2023 to 71.2 mph this year
- a drop in fast swing%: similar to his bat speed, his fast swing% has dropped to 15.1%, much lower than his career average of 24.7%. fast swings generate +0.6 run value per 100 while not fast swings genearte -3.2 run value per 100
- zone contact issues: devers is swinging through pitches in the zone at a career high rate. he makes contact on balls in the zone about 68.7% of the time, a huge dip from his 75.3% career average and 84% league average
continuing this in a thread to include more screenshots + videos