@kagami

one of my favorite trades of the off-season so far—mariners get jose ferrer for harry ford (top 50 prospect) and isaac lyon by the numbers, the mariners trading a top catching prospect for a left handed reliever with a 4.36 career era looks terrible but this is actually an incredible trade for the mariners, especially for future playoffs runs a few reason why ferrer is likely a steal for the mariners 1. an elite arsenal that limits fly balls ferrer is in the 99th percentile for grounders, 94th percentile for fastball velocity, 95th percentile for walk rate, and 93rd percentile in barrel rate that’s great in the regular season, but even better in the playoffs when homers play a big part in winning games 2. cost controlled through 2029 elite left handed relievers get paid a premium on the free agent market. josh hader makes about $19m/year, aroldis chapman made about $13m in 2025, and matt strahm clocked in about $7.5m ferrer is a pre-arb players, so he’s penciled in for under $1m this year and may not top $7.5m in total earnings through 2029. as a mid market team, that’s a huge cost savings that could be applied to free agents or mid-season acquisitions (like suarez/naylor) 3. elite swing and miss secondaries while ferrer doesn’t boast an elite strikeout rate, that’s more a symptom of his elite sinker, than a lack of swing and miss stuff. ferrer’s changeup (47% whiff rate) and slider (52% whiff rate) rank in the top 10 of all qualified pitchers. for reference, andres munoz’s slider is a top 5 pitch with a 51% whiff rate. ferrer has all the elements of an elite reliever without the track record. it’s a great bet at the cost of ford, who is blocked by raleigh anyway. https://x.com/pitchprofiler/status/1997420244541784388?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg

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