@kagami
here’s why developing a breaking ball is important for schlittler’s development
- his current arsenal is all more vertically inclined movement (he’s exceptional at back spinning a ball)
- while that’s highly effective currently, hitters still know what to expect in terms of velo/movement
- adding something with drop / slower velo would give hitters a completely different look and make it hard to sit on hard, rising stuff
data wise, we can see schlittler “struggling” more as he goes deeper into games (third-time through the order penalty)
- first/second time through the order his fip sits under 2.50 with ~33% k-rate and ~3.5% bb-rate
- third time through the order his fip sits 3.71 with a just under 20% k-rate and 9.5% bb-rate
between his limited arsenal and fatigue, hitters are able to adjust and time him much better third time through the order
and, while adding a curveball sounds obvious, it’s not that simple due to schlittler’s ability to generate backspin (drop requires topspin)