Jason Crawford
@jasoncrawford.eth
Founder, The Roots of Progress (rootsofprogress.org). On book-writing sabbatical, trying not to check social media including DMs
Announcing Progress Conference 2026
Speakers this year include the Director of DARPA, co-CEO of Waymo, and two Nobel Laureates. Back at the beautiful Lighthaven campus in Berkeley, Oct 8–11
It's going to be great! Apply for an invitation:
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Sorry I [haven’t replied to your email / couldn’t make your event / have been ignoring your texts]. I’ve been vibecoding
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“Some kind of turning point,” Elon on Dwarkesh, a social network for AIs, and lots more in the latest links digest:
Founder vs. employee is a question of existential dread vs. existential angst
Founders face existential dread: is this going to work? will we run out of money? is my startup going to die?
Employees face existential angst: do I still believe in the mission? do I trust leadership? is this all meaningless?
Choose what ...
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“There is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally ‘cursed’ about relying on this too much. … This is the slide to corposlop.” @vitalik.eth
Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But als
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Progressives used to believe in progress. The old left was not just the party of science—it was a party of science, technology, and economic growth. Today’s progressives need to embrace all three if they want to become the champions of abundance.
My message for the left:
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The wisdom of @vitalik.eth, Voices from 2099, ultrasound BCI, preventative MRIs, a browser written by AI, and much, much more
Links and short notes, 2026-01-26:
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There is no silver bullet for risk. Safety is achieved through defense in depth, and through the orchestration of a wide variety of solutions.
Last month, in a private talk, I gave a historical example: the history of fire safety. It resonated so strongly with the audience that I wrote it up:
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AI people speak of a “transition” to a new era. But a transition is a period of change that ends.
AI will *permanently increase the rate of change*. Before the AI transition is over, a new one will begin—genetic engineering, nanotech, whatever. It's all transition from here on out
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Nature is a complex system, we are told, and therefore unpredictable, uncontrollable, unruly. This is true but irrelevant: we can master nature in the ways that matter
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Everyone loves writing annual letters these days—so here’s mine, including my annual reading highlights:
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My essay series The Techno-Humanist Manifesto has concluded, and you can read the whole thing online.
I’m pleased to announce that the series will be revised for publication as a book from MIT Press (expected early 2027)!
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The links digest is back!
Claude’s soul, industrial leapfrogging, slop from the 1700s, the genius of Jeff Dean, and much more
Links and short notes, 2025-12-19:
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When the cost of creation falls, the volume of production greatly expands, but the average quality necessarily falls. This overall process, however, will usher in a golden age of creativity and experimentation
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