Jake
@jake0
Cooking up a piece on Ethereum’s future with some other Messari analysts. Seems like the sentiment has been in the gutter recently, but maybe starting to pick up again. Who is still bullish Ethereum/$ETH?
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matthewb
@matthewb
pretty confident that ETHBTC bottomed already. if it can clear major res around 4k then it has a shot at new aths. imo, much of the criticism directed at the EF over the last 6-12 months was largely due to ETH’s underperformance relative to the rest of the market. overall, different tradeoffs vs. solana and still immensely valuable. the question is whether it’s overpriced vs. comps, but conversely not sure if any other chain is really competing for “world computer” so it remains in its own lane to some extent.
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Jake
@jake0
completely agree with you — institutional + RWAs adoption on Ethereum is still the largest out of any chain by a mile. I remember similar sentiment of Solana post FTX and look at where it is now. I do think the Ethereum vs. $ETH debate is valid. Ethereum can succeed without $ETH succeeding.
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matthewb
@matthewb
completely agree, that's a big question for me. I suspect capital allocators will also be thinking along similar lines. one useful mental model I've found for thinking about ETH price action: typically a sell signal when gas is very high (> 100 gwei) and a buy signal when very low (< 3 gwei). very high gas indicates unsustainable network activity and very low gas indicates boredom. remains to be seen if we see true mania again for ETH this cycle, personally I would bet yes but I'd like to see strong ETF flows sooner than later.
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Jake
@jake0
I like the ETH gas buy/sell indicators. I doubt we will see mania for ETH this cycle or even high gas. It's pretty clear that Ethereum is no longer the consumer chain. However, Ethereum is the institutional/enterprise chain, and that brings a lot more value than trading NFTs/memecoins.
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matthewb
@matthewb
I think “ETH mania” this time around will look more like price pushing 5-6k (everyone calling for 10k) and gas > 100 gwei, as opposed to the crazy hysteria of 2021.
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