@jacob

2026 is the year centralized exchanges are categorically disrupted by onchain markets (aka decentralized exchange) Onchain market supply, liquidity and infrastructure has crossed the threshold such that anyone can spin up a production-grade exchange that competes head on with the incumbent CEX core business (e.g. fomo). Many large exchanges are aggregating markets onchain which is accelerating this trend. What used to be a moat (kyc/licenses/regulation first) is now a competitive disadvantage against new trading apps, while value capture has moved upstream to issuance (pump, polymarket, zora, clanker etc) and the network level (solana is really an exchange disguised as an L1). Years of infrastructure work is culminating into the most open and exciting time to build new markets and exchanges. Centralized exchanges will need to be judicious in where they choose to compete as the barriers have come down and the nature of the game has changed. This next phase will determine Yahoo vs. Google outcomes for the largest participants today. For the industry at large this is probably the most exciting time in a while to experiment in defining and launching new markets and exchanges onchain. What looks dumb, unserious or weird now is probably more right than wrong. Expect to see a lot more opinionated, specialized and niche markets. I am very long this trend going into 2026. Exciting times ahead.

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