@jacek

An overview of memecoin OTC activity in 2025 shows valuations declined sharply after Q1 and failed to recover, and at the same time the market narrowed the set of tokens it actively trades. Activity didn't disappear, but it became more selective. Counterparties are engaging with far fewer names per month, concentrating flow into a small subset of the memecoin universe. What this means in practice is that the market is no longer broadly speculating across everything. Interest is focused on a limited number of tokens that continue to command attention. The data does not prove why those tokens are selected, but a reasonable inference might be that projects with sustained relevance, recognizable distribution, and teams that continue to deliver milestones are likely to remain in that core set and survive into the next cycle. Much of web3 still resembles a casino optimized for short-term returns. But a more disciplined approach is to favor tokens with active builders and persistent deliverables rather than chasing every new new launch. From that perspective, tokens like $DEGEN fit the profile of assets positioned for longer-term optionality rather than purely reflexive speculation. NFA. The broader pattern mirrors what happened with NFTs. After the initial mania, only a small number of projects carried forward into something resembling maturity, while the majority faded. It is likely that the 2024–25 memecoin cycle produces a similar outcome: a handful of durable projects persist, while the long tail and most launchpad-driven memes lose relevance as short-term interest fades.

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