@ialberquilla
Can asset allocation beat market timing in crypto?
I tested a simple version of that question: no BTC timing rule, no move-to-cash signal, no macro overlay. Just rotate into the strongest non-BTC tokens on a fixed schedule and compare the result with BTC buy-and-hold.
From October 2022 to May 2026, $10,000 in BTC became $38,347.
The weekly top-5 strategy using 90-day momentum became $64,691. The weekly top-10 version with inverse-volatility weighting became $47,045. Both beat BTC without ever needing to decide whether crypto was in a bull market or bear market.
The failure case matters more than the headline. A weekly top-10 strategy using only 7-day momentum became just $13,212. It looked more reactive, but it mostly captured noise.
The caveat is drawdown. This was not a safer ride than BTC. The raw top-5 90-day strategy had a -79.82% max drawdown versus BTC's -49.63%. Even the inverse-volatility version still drew down -62.01%.
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction