YC - make something people want Farcaster - make something people want to trade This a my motto going into 2026.
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Dwarkesh just dropped his thoughts on the state of AI for December 2025, and he’s calling the top. He’s moderately bearish. He argues that because these models can’t "learn on the job" like a human, AGI is much further away than we thought. https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/thoughts-on-ai-progress-dec-2025 He’s right but it doesn’t matter. I’m a developer. I love solving problems, but I've always hated typing. I hate syntax and I don't know much about algorithms. Dwarkesh sees the current state of AI as a "modern expert system," implying that it’s brittle but from where I’m sitting, its set me free. If you looked at my workflow in January of this year, I was tab-completing lines of code. It was faster, sure, but I was still in the weeds. Now the game has fundamentally changed. I don’t tab-complete anymore. I don’t even really "write" code. I assign agents. I break a complex task into features. I hand them off. The agents go do the work. I review the code, not to check for syntax errors (Opus is a better programmer than I will ever be) but to check the logic. The agent is the virtuoso musician, but I am the conductor. The model is still missing that key spark of human intelligence. It can build the feature, but it doesn't know why the user needs that feature. That's why I still have a job. This time next year I bet I won't be typing as much and talking more. I want the full Minority Report experience. I want to stand in front of a screen, dictating changes, and watching the software assemble itself in real-time. I’ll be building things in a day that used to take a week. I will be absolutely unstoppable. If I am 10x more productive, so are the researchers at OpenAI and Anthropic. So are the students studying deep learning. So are the engineers building the next generation of hardware. We aren't just using these tools to build CRUD apps; we are using them to build the next version of the tools themselves. LLMs are accelerating the frontier of knowledge because they are removing the friction between "having an idea" and "testing that idea."
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"I Wasted 8 Years of My Life in Crypto." Brutal read. I get it. Working in the casino is exhausting. FOMO. Analyzing charts. Creator coins, writer coins, VC coins. TGEs. Bots, farmers, and whales. https://x.com/kenchangh/status/1994854381267947640 But remember, no crying in the casino. A system can be a casino and a net benefit to society at the same time. Prediction markets act as gambling sites, yet major media outlets now rely on them as decentralized sources of truth. The gambling incentive is exactly what powers the data accuracy. You don't get the clear signal without the speculative noise. The stock market follows the same logic. It's a rigorous signal for the strength of the economy, yet it also hosts massive speculative trading. The casino aspect doesn't negate the societal benefit. It funds it. The article focuses on the "billion dollars in your head" value prop, but that was never the mass market unlock. The average person doesn't need to smuggle fortunes. They just want a system that works better than the old one. We are still early adopters in crypto. If this were the early days of the internet, we’d be building websites. Today, we are building mini apps. To the outside world, these look like toys. But this is simply the necessary phase of figuring out a new economic model. If the "Casino" is just the funding mechanism, what is the actual value prop is on the other side? Here is a prediction: The end of SaaS. The current subscription model is bloated. We pay monthly fees for access to software we barely use. Crypto changes how value is captured on the internet. In the future, we won't subscribe to apps. We'll pay for intelligence and compute on demand. You pay for what you use, when you use it. Frictionless. That's just one idea. There are others if you know where to look.
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