The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 in 2025 is plausible but uncertain. Analysts like Bernstein and Standard Chartered predict this target, citing institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and potential U.S. policy shifts under a Trump administration. Historical post-halving cycles also support significant gains, with Bitcoin’s supply constraints driving demand. However, risks such as regulatory hurdles, market volatility, and macroeconomic factors like interest rate hikes could hinder this surge. Experts estimate a 40-60% probability, depending on sustained bullish momentum and global adoption trends. While optimistic forecasts align with current sentiment, the crypto market’s unpredictability tempers confidence.