@greygood
𝘾𝙖𝙫𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙫𝙨. 𝙍𝙖𝙥𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨
I have a mathematical model that estimates win probabilities independently of scores and betting odds.
I’ll be doing the math during the live game.
Right now I get 𝗖𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝟱𝟰% 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝟰𝟲%, a small pre-game edge to Cleveland.
A flip occurs when specific variables exceed a defined threshold, not when the score changes, so the model reverses before the scoreboard or ESPN’s win probability shifts.
@bracky What odds do you have?
I will cast results here ↓
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