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Ferran 🐒
@ferran
1/2 My forecast for 2025 is that the integration of Farcaster’s social layer in Coinbase Wallet will be a spectacular failure. We'll probably see a spike when it comes out of beta (after all, there’s a segment of Coinbase Wallet users who enjoy trying out new things and if they do it well people will try it out) but I predict that by the end of summer, no more than 5% of messages will come from there, and DAUs via Coinbase will be negligible. The reasons? Current Farcaster status quo simply isn’t appealing outside an extremely narrow niche. People don’t want a social layer tied to their wallets. And 99% of people don't give a fuck about financial incentives (basing a significant part of your growth strategy on that is shooting yourself in the foot. It’s a massive trap that could be very difficult to escape from). Continue...
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Ghostlinkz
@ghostlinkz.eth
> People don’t want a social layer tied to their wallets The bigger issue is that most internet users still don’t have a crypto wallet. Warpcast went with a "social first" approach but hasn’t been very successful at growing the user base. Now CB is going to try the "wallet first" strategy. What worries me is that we’ve already seen how CB onboarding can play out. They did a Farcaster quest back in Dec 2023, where they paid people $20 to sign up, and from what I saw, it led to more spam than actual users. Im not sure why this time would be any different, but I hope they've figured it out
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Ferran 🐒
@ferran
Yes, I believe these are the kind of users CBW will onboard. Plus, openly linking a financial wallet with a personally identity doesn’t sound appealing to the type of user that can bring more quality to FC imo
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