During ETF rumor cycles, stablecoin velocity increases as traders move capital rapidly between exchanges to exploit arbitrage opportunities. This boosts overall market liquidity but also increases systemic leverage. Investors should monitor stablecoin supply growth, exchange inflows, and on‑chain settlement speeds. A prudent strategy is to maintain a portion of capital in stablecoins to stay flexible while avoiding overexposure to platforms with rising liquidation risks. Liquidity mobility becomes a competitive advantage during rumor‑driven markets.
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Breakeven now hovers dangerously high — Average production costs sit around $90k–$101k per BTC amid high difficulty and energy expenses, while BTC trades near $70k–$95k ranges. Many operations run at a loss (some losing $8k+ per coin mined). Only setups below $0.06/kWh with top-tier ASICs (15–16 J/TH) stay positive; otherwise, holding BTC directly outperforms mining.
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Another factor to consider is regulatory pressure. By 2025-2026, regulatory frameworks around the world could have become much more defined, and centralized exchanges might face stricter compliance requirements. This could open the door for decentralized platforms to thrive, particularly if they can offer a compliant and secure trading environment without the overhead of maintaining large, centralized operations. However, the regulatory environment could also target decentralized exchanges if they grow too large, potentially stalling their progress or pushing them into more centralized models. How DEXs navigate evolving regulations will be a crucial determinant of their success in challenging CEXs.
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