updates

🧵1/ Macro & Crypto: March 2025 FOMC Fallout

The Fed just held rates steady, but the impact ripples far beyond bonds. Let’s break down what the latest FOMC decisions mean for inflation, recession risks, and why crypto markets—especially BTC & ETH—just caught fire. 👇

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2/ The Fed Stands Still—but Signals Change

🔹 Fed funds target: Unchanged at 4.25–4.50%
🔹 Balance sheet runoff: Slowing Treasury QT from $25B ➝ $5B/month
🔹 Powell: “Well-positioned” to adapt, eyes on inflation risks

One dissent (Waller wanted faster QT), but overall tone = cautious patience.

3/ Market Interprets This as Dovish 🕊️

While the Fed didn’t pivot, it blinked on QT. That’s liquidity-positive.
Powell flagged uncertainty (e.g., tariffs), but no urgency to tighten.
Forward guidance? Still penciling in 2 rate cuts by year-end.

4/ Inflation: Cooling, but with Caveats

🟢 CPI YoY (Feb): 2.8% — softest in 2+ years
🟢 Core CPI: ~3.1%, slowly trending lower
🟡 PPI: Flat MoM, YoY at 3.2%

Short-term relief, but tariff-induced costs could reverse this later in 2025.

6/ Labor Market: Gradual Cooldown

🧊 NFP: +151K in Feb (vs. ~209K Q4 2024 avg)
📈 Unemployment: Up to 4.1%
⬇️ Participation rate: 62.4%, two-year low
💵 Wages: ~4% YoY, down but still firm

Translation: Goldilocks zone. Slower, not broken. Gives Fed room to cut—eventually.

5/ The Fed Is Not Fully Convinced

Goldman now sees core inflation sticking near 3% by Dec.
Wage growth is slowing, but not collapsing.
The Fed is buying time—not declaring victory.
Watch incoming CPI/PCE prints closely. 🔍