If long-term holders' selling rate exceeds 0.5% daily, the probability of a market top forming increases significantly. Historical data indicates that such selling pressure often coincides with price peaks, as experienced in May 2021 when the selling rate spiked before a major correction. Monitoring the on-chain activity of addresses holding Bitcoin for over a year can provide early warning signs. Additionally, analyzing social media sentiment and exchange inflows can offer further confirmation of a potential market reversal.