JUNE 2025 JOBS PREVIEW: MARKET VS. STREET

Kalshi market is forecasting 106K jobs for June, sharply down over the past month.

Street estimates:

🔸 GS, Citi: 85K
🔸 StanChart, BofA: 95K
🔸 UBS, DB, WF, Barclays: 100K
🔸 HSBC, Daiwa: 110K
🔸 Oxford: 115K
🔸 TD, SocGen, BNP: 125K https://t.co/5UdyX9kFUQ

*Walter Bloomberg

US LABOR JUN NONFARM PAYROLLS +147K; CONSENSUS +110K

US JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; CONSENSUS 4.3%

US JUN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +0.22%, OR +$0.08 TO $36.3; OVER YEAR +3.71%

US JUN PRIVATE SECTOR PAYROLLS +74K AND GOVERNMENT PAYROLLS +73K

US JUN AVERAGE WORKWEEK -0.1 HOUR TO

kalshi pretty off here, missed by 30%

https://x.com/deitaone/status/1940740993441055227?s=46&t=btIkh173tAV3h-PQAK4osg

https://x.com/deitaone/status/1940750225297080580?s=46&t=btIkh173tAV3h-PQAK4osg