Here comes a long post on the future of prediction markets. @barmstrong had a great cast on the crypto developments he is most excited for in 2025 and number 2 was my favorite prediction markets. With the most recent U.S. election PMs have burst onto the mainstream with large players like @polymarket predicting in real time who would win the election. Companies like predictit, kalshi, snd betfair along with crypto protocols like polymarket and seer.pm will put a lot of the traditional pollsters out of business in much the same way the internet disrupted the newspaper/journalist biz. Even polymarket hired the famous political prognisticator Nate Silver as an advisor. PMs tap directly into the wisdom of the crowds while providing a financial incentive that has proven more accurate than traditional polling. Crypto is uniquely positioned to be the nexus of PMs because of its permissionless trustless nature governed by smart contracts that provides instant payouts, low fees, and cuts out the middleman.

What follows is a basic rundowm of how PMs work and the unique design choices seer.pm took that positions itself as a major player in the coming years 🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵

Interested in new ideas and experimenting with them

A market is created around a specific event. Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA championship in 2025? (PLEASE GOD) or will the price of $ETH be above 4000 USD by June 1st 2025? (Prayers UP). Now most prediction markets like predictit, betfair, and @polymarket curate and put forth their own markets they deem worthy. But seer.pm is giving the power back to the people

Seer.pm has permissionless market creation,,, but wait noooo won't this fracture the liquidittyyyyy. There are two great solutions one is market verification so users know the market is safe and there is a points airdrop campaign going on right now for select markets to drive more liquidity to said marketss. Token incentivizers rejoiceee. You can get bridge over to the @gnosischain to begin farming awayy

Prediction markets are indeed revolutionizing the way we predict outcomes, leveraging the wisdom of crowds and blockchain technology for more accurate results. Exciting times ahead!