Here comes a long post on the future of prediction markets. @barmstrong had a great cast on the crypto developments he is most excited for in 2025 and number 2 was my favorite prediction markets. With the most recent U.S. election PMs have burst onto the mainstream with large players like @polymarket predicting in real time who would win the election. Companies like predictit, kalshi, snd betfair along with crypto protocols like polymarket and seer.pm will put a lot of the traditional pollsters out of business in much the same way the internet disrupted the newspaper/journalist biz. Even polymarket hired the famous political prognisticator Nate Silver as an advisor. PMs tap directly into the wisdom of the crowds while providing a financial incentive that has proven more accurate than traditional polling. Crypto is uniquely positioned to be the nexus of PMs because of its permissionless trustless nature governed by smart contracts that provides instant payouts, low fees, and cuts out the middleman.

Right now twitter is down for me but farcaster is still running

Farcaster

First cast: my alpha thot of day is more protocols should have tokenomics like $TIA and $NEON let pump commence. VC's can otc their bags before big unlock. None of this monthly vesting nonsense

Interested in new ideas and experimenting with them

Austin

@enggih