Looking for terminally online news junkies.

1. You check X / Twitter first thing in the morning and the last thing before you go to bed at night.

2. you know what OSINT means without looking it up

3. you know who nate silver and nate cohn are (and what publications they currently work for)

4. if asked on the street, you could give an accurate summary of the recent geopolitical developments in Europe, Middle East and Latin America in the past week

If this is you, please reply here.

IMO there is no longer a way to collect meaningful demographic samplings since every polling method expresses bias against people who don't use that communication medium. A critical mass of people have also realized they have every incentive to lie to pollsters. By under-stating or mis-stating preferences, they can increase ad funding towards their preferred causes. Most people in most important demographics will just ignore pollsters.

The best you can hope for is gauging sentiment in certain social clusters, but then there's really no way of knowing who's actually going to vote. Sentiment analysis is also really hard to measure without getting gamed.

Then there's the problem that polling is expensive, and the only people who publish polls now are people trying to manipulate the narrative in favor of whoever is sponsoring them. Literally no one else has any incentive to publish polling numbers. It's all just mindless fiction until election day. There are more worthwhile things to pay attention to.

I feel like Nate Silver hasn't been relevant in a long time 🤔   Last I checked, social media broke his models a decade ago and he's just been shit posting nonsense since then. Has that actually changed?

actually i’ve never heard of nate cohn but i think i can beat anyone on farcaster at doing #4

hi, both me and @danielsinclair firmly fall into this category

It is you. You have good takes too. You always come up with an interesting lens on things and bonus you aren’t an asshole

This is pretty much me. I don't pay close enough attention to politics to feel comfortable seriously talking about it. Just enough, so I stay up to speed. 

I know what OSINT is. But I had to look up the Nates lol followed now

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I wonder how, with how active you are here, you still have a litlle more followers on X.

@dwr TBH an 85-90% of this and i am passionate about geopolitics

This is definitely @0xsamir.

I think I can freely debate on #4.

false. nate silver isnt working for a publication

I check Warp first thing in the morning.

OSINT sets the bar too low.

once upon a time we lobbied for channels and mine was geopolitics.

bring back czar dan.

This so me. I check x, farcaster, various newslets, blogs etc everyday.

surely there are a lot of us here right? that’s why we’re here?

I subscribe to Michael Shellenberger on X