politics

if Trump loses, i think on the margin it will have been because of JD Vance

you cannot convince me there is one person in America who is voting for Trump *because* of Vance

and there are many on the other side now hyper-mobilized because of Vance's comments on women

epic fail

If Trump loses, it's because he agreed to a June debate instead of waiting until September after the conventions.

David Plouffe (working for Harris now) gave an interesting talk a few years ago that talked about double hater voters. 

They broke for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. They were clearly leaning Trump in 2024 until Biden withdrew, and now leaning Harris.

Harris is not popular. But compared to Trump, very well could be.

Also in that talk: VP candidate doesn't matter.