@dungki

NBA Mispricing: Bulls vs Hornets (Simple Breakdown) Full market here: https://polymarket.com/event/nba-chi-cha-2025-12-12/nba-chi-cha-2025-12-12?tid=1765540326942 The Bulls are on a 7-game losing streak, dealing with 10+ injuries, locker room problems, and a bad road profile (1–5 as road favorites). Polymarket still prices them at 58%, but after adjusting for losing streak, injuries, morale, and away form, their true win probability is closer to 33%. Meanwhile, the Hornets are healthy, playing at home, already beat the Bulls two weeks ago, and multiple computer models project them to win. Their real win probability is around 66%. This creates a major mispricing: Hornets @ 43¢ → True Value ~66% → +23.6% Edge Liquidity is strong ($317K), overround is tiny (1%), and every system filter points in the same direction. Main Play: Buy Hornets Win @ 43¢ Edge: +23.6% Expected ROI: ~55% Safer Option: Hornets +3.5 @ 54¢ Supporting Play: Under 236.5 @ 56¢ Avoid: Bulls ML @ 58¢ (Severely Overpriced)

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