Bulls 129–126 Hornets — Trade Recap Bet: Hornets Win @ 43¢ Result: Loss (-$100) The Bulls snapped their 7-game losing streak and won by 3. The edge (+23.6%) was real, the process was correct, but the 34% outcome hit. Key Point: A 66% trade still loses 1 out of 3 times. This was variance, not a system failure. Action: No changes. Same rules. Move on.
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anw this analyze is generated by AI with proper prompt, been doing paper trading with 75% win streak for 4 match (soccer match) this is the first NBA analytic
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NBA Mispricing: Bulls vs Hornets (Simple Breakdown) Full market here: https://polymarket.com/event/nba-chi-cha-2025-12-12/nba-chi-cha-2025-12-12?tid=1765540326942 The Bulls are on a 7-game losing streak, dealing with 10+ injuries, locker room problems, and a bad road profile (1–5 as road favorites). Polymarket still prices them at 58%, but after adjusting for losing streak, injuries, morale, and away form, their true win probability is closer to 33%. Meanwhile, the Hornets are healthy, playing at home, already beat the Bulls two weeks ago, and multiple computer models project them to win. Their real win probability is around 66%. This creates a major mispricing: Hornets @ 43¢ → True Value ~66% → +23.6% Edge Liquidity is strong ($317K), overround is tiny (1%), and every system filter points in the same direction. Main Play: Buy Hornets Win @ 43¢ Edge: +23.6% Expected ROI: ~55% Safer Option: Hornets +3.5 @ 54¢ Supporting Play: Under 236.5 @ 56¢ Avoid: Bulls ML @ 58¢ (Severely Overpriced)
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